HOW I THINK: BIG TRENDS

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Ride the Prevailing Wind:  In planning my 1200 mile bike “tour de Patagonia” I first considered biking north along the Andes. Both directions, northbound and southbound had their advantages but a quick Google search confirmed the prevailing winds came from the northwest. Easy call: I’d head south. While on the trip I got occasional wind gusts from every direction and, of course, I didn’t let them change my course. I stayed with the bigger, long-standing trend and kept pedaling.

Early in my career it was plainly obvious digital ad spend was likely to increase dramatically over the coming decade: it was still a small fraction of overall media spend, it was delivering outsized results, and both time online and online shopping were increasing. I hustled to get up to speed. Not everyone needed to refocus their careers but anyone could’ve benefited from some degree of understanding of digital’s prevailing wind. It was sustained enough to change how the broader media market was priced, it led to an explosion of small niche-focused businesses who could now reach their relatively tiny markets. It brought down legacy media, changed the political landscape far beyond the Cambridge-Analytica scandal, and it made Alphabet, née Google, and Meta into trillion dollar Mag 7 leaders.

Of course, AI is the much bigger prevailing wind and everyone can benefit from some level of understanding. For my part, I make an effort to specialize in its marketing applications—everything from content generation, concepting, market research, to team management—while taking classes like IBM’s AI for Business to maintain an awareness of its broader business implications and legal risks.  

Last modified: March 25, 2025